A yield move has several causes
Expected policy, real rates, term premiums and inflation compensation differ. A derivative-pricing model is not a physical NQ return forecast.
Term-premium research ↗· New York AM
9:30 AM → noon · New York time
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Research windows · New York time
Overnight6:00 PM–8:30 AMNY morning9:30 AM–noon
Automatic preparation at 5:45 PM and 9:00 AM while open.
SESSION MACRO OUTLOOK
NQ / ESWaiting for sources
Waiting for manual session preparation.
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Input agreement · probability not calibrated. Score —.
Explore all evidence ↗Evidence workspace
Back to outlook ↗Data & research
Explore the evidence behind each call.
Charts & context
Read the macro picture.
Official BLS observations
Inflation & employment
Cross-asset gauges
Latest pulls · separate from saved callsEconomic releases · publication packets
Read the whole report. The ledger locks expectations before publication and keeps the original actual. Here, check the publication, reference period and companion details. Revised values never replace the original.
Review a recorded publication
Human source review, not automatic verification. CPI/PCE require headline and core actual/consensus pairs. Employment requires payroll, unemployment and wage pairs plus the companion details above. Unchecked or incomplete packets remain context. No consensus is invented.
Publication review audit
ALFRED historical vintages ↗ help reconstruct earlier information; they are not a live release or consensus feed. The next snapshot captures reviews; earlier calls do not change.
Expectations before the event · actual after
Release ledger · expectations, actuals & revisions.
Official agencies publish actual values. Consensus needs a separate survey source. Lock the expectation before a release, then record the official actual. Both numbers and timestamps stay visible.
Source URLs and timing are checked. Publication contents and first-release status require your review.
Company outlooks · microeconomics
Review demand, margins, pricing power, competition and investment. Narratives remain context. Eligible numeric guidance and margin changes can contribute to the earnings channel when paired with sourced, dated Nasdaq-100 exposure.
Add a sourced company observation
Saved with your private desk; browser fallback applies when cloud storage is unavailable. New records join future collected snapshots. Adding a record after the cutoff cannot confirm an earlier call.
Collected company headlines · awaiting review
Transparent rubric
What drives the current bias?
Related inputs are averaged within groups. Bullish rates support is halved when eligible VIX and credit-spread inputs both show deterioration on comparable observation dates. This is an experimental conflict rule. Headlines, old Fed language and unsourced monthly surprises receive no directional votes.
What the filter excluded
13-week view
Leveraged funds positioning
Session context & notes
Your research record
Save the call. Review the result.
Each window keeps one original call. Refresh or Check results after a window finishes to grade it when complete prices are available.
Open session history ↗Separate evidence channels
Growth, inflation & policy
Source health
The written brief
Evidence, in plain English.
AI explanation is optional. The original saved bias stays unchanged.
Your own reasoning
Write your session thesis.
Cumulative research
Updated Oct 12, 2026The research behind the outlook
218 supplied Drive resources indexed, alongside MIT transcripts and official research. Ten secondary notes revisited in this pass. Indexed does not mean fully reviewed or validated for NQ.
Funding can amplify a shock
Market liquidity and financing constraints can reinforce each other. Credit and volatility alone do not identify forced liquidation.
Original liquidity model ↗Cash generation differs from earnings
Accruals, margins, guidance and cash flows answer different questions. Annual profitability studies do not establish an intraday index direction.
Issuer filings ↗Read growth and inflation together
Compare the complete release with expectations captured beforehand. Keep information time, original values and later revisions distinct.
Federal Reserve paper ↗Good fit can predict poorly
New indicators need a fair baseline and chronological validation. More variables or better prose cannot establish a higher hit rate.
Prediction research ↗Not every move is a macro shock
The 2007 quant episode illustrates deleveraging and reduced market-making capital. It is historical evidence, not today's liquidation signal.
MIT follow-up research ↗How this research builds over time
This section holds the reviewed research behind the dashboard. Data refresh updates connected sources and the existing reasoning rules; it does not read new papers, train a model or change scoring weights. New research is reviewed before being integrated into the dashboard.
Macro research · the full framework
Financing & credit
Read real yields and corporate spreads together. Nominal yield changes do not identify a policy shock, and cheaper Treasuries need not mean cheaper corporate financing.
Labor & inflation
Read employment, participation, wages, revisions and productivity as a report bundle. Inflation expectations and supply constraints can change the interpretation.
Global demand & currencies
Currency moves affect foreign revenues, imported costs and funding differently. Broad dollar data is not the ICE DXY basket.
Expectations & valuation
Expected future earnings, rates and risk compensation all affect valuations. Long-run productivity is background; it needs a fresh, sourced development to inform a session.
Integrated from the later MIT macro lectures and selected microeconomic material. Framework context, not new scoring votes. Micro lecture library ↗
Understanding the macro outlook
An economic reading guide. These concepts explain competing channels; they do not add scoring votes.
01 · News, expectations and policy
Stronger employment can support earnings and also increase expectations of tighter monetary policy. Compare actual releases with a sourced forecast captured before publication. An expected policy decision is different from a policy surprise.
02 · Real growth, inflation and employment
Separate real growth from price increases, and inflation slowing from prices falling. Read unemployment together with participation, payroll revisions and hours. Keep monthly, annual and annualized growth measures distinct.
03 · Spending and demand
Real consumption, disposable income and private investment describe demand. Headline GDP also includes inventories, government and net exports; its composition matters. Monthly and quarterly trends are background, not automatic session catalysts.
04 · Financing versus earnings
A yield change can reflect policy expectations, inflation, growth or risk premiums. Lower yields do not guarantee stronger equities; higher yields do not identify a tightening shock. The Fed sets its policy stance, not every Treasury yield. The classroom IS–LM model is a simplified economic framework, not an NQ return model.
Based on the supplied MIT lectures 1, 2, 3 and 5. Historical examples describe Spring 2023, not today’s economy. MIT lecture library ↗
Official research desk
Research links, not connected live feeds or extra directional votes.
CFTC · positioning
Weekly leveraged-fund exposure and changes. The existing COT collector supplies the Home read.
Reports ↗SEC · company outlooks
Check 8-K earnings releases and guidance, then 10-Q/10-K financials for index-heavy companies. A filing needs a material change and timing before it can support a session case.
EDGAR data ↗FTC · regulatory developments
Competition and merger actions can affect specific companies. Confirm the company, legal stage and economic impact; a headline alone has no fixed market direction.
Official feeds ↗BIS · global macro
Global liquidity, credit and debt-service statistics describe the broader financial regime. Respect each series’ publication lag; quarterly changes are not fresh intraday shocks.
Statistics ↗DTCC · market structure
Public market aggregates help study activity and settlement. Gross volume is not net buying; detailed analytics may require a subscription.
Public data ↗Freshness & availability
Source health
Full pulled data · JSON
Saved calls & results
Frozen calls · honest reviews
Your session history.
Compare the original bias with what the market did during that exact window.
Market-price collection is off. Review each completed call manually as right, wrong or mixed. Removed calls remain recoverable with Show removed.
Record · review · refine
Measure your bias.
Results for the selected research session.
By conviction
By category
By evidence engine
Keep old and revised scoring results separate before judging a change in accuracy.
Win rate = right ÷ (right + wrong). Mixed and pending are excluded. Category direction is compared with the direction implied by your overall outcome. These descriptive results are not a calibrated probability.
Macro observations · FRED
Get a FRED API key ↗ · sent through your owner-only Cloudflare service to FRED; excluded from hosted HTML, history and exports.
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Settings.
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Official economic data · BLS
Loads automatically after sign-in. Keys stay out of hosted HTML, history and exports. Requests published inflation and labor data; calendar schedules and consensus forecasts are separate.
Energy data · EIA
Save once to your private Firebase account for automatic loading after sign-in. The key is sent through your Cloudflare service to EIA. It is excluded from history, exports and hosted HTML. Browser storage is used if private sync is unavailable.
Optional key · Alpha Vantage
Save once to your private Firebase account for automatic loading after sign-in. Keys are excluded from history, exports and hosted HTML. Browser storage is used if private sync is unavailable. Alpha Vantage market-price collection is off for this macro-only dashboard. Your key remains saved for a future supported integration.
Data & storage
Checking private history…
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Updates
9:00 AM and 5:45 PM New York time. Opening during a session catches up if its preparation is missing. Collection pauses when the page is closed.
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How this desk builds a call
Fresh daily rates, risk appetite and dollar readings are grouped. Related indicators share one vote. Monthly levels and weekly positioning remain context. Release surprises require a sourced expectation saved before the event.
Direction, evidence and the ±0.05% flat band freeze at the first save. Human reviews can override an automatic grade. Removed records remain recoverable and cannot auto-save again in the same window.
Best next data upgrades
- Sourced release expectations locked before publication, compared with the first official actual.
- Separate growth, inflation and policy surprises instead of using one generic headline direction.
- Macro trend and financial-stress context, with dates and without duplicate votes.
- Separate forward testing by session and market regime before changing weights.
Published directions are Bullish or Bearish. Conviction and opposing evidence are shown separately. Missing, stale, single-group or exactly balanced evidence stays Not ready. No win-probability percentage is claimed without forward calibration.
Model development
Checking usable training records…
Training requires session features saved before the open and verified subsequent returns. We do not train a text model to sound more confident or tune weights to the same records used for evaluation.